The global uncertainty that began with the pandemic in 2020, coupled with the start of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, negatively impacted the global energy and food sectors, triggering global inflation through price increases in these sectors and causing disruptions in supply chains. While this uncertainty continued, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which began in 2023, profoundly affected the global energy market. The disruption of important transit routes for global energy trade, such as the Suez Canal and the Strait of Hormuz, resulted not only in increased energy prices but also in supply problems and the emergence of new energy corridors. In 2025, the import tariffs and trade wars initiated during US President Donald Trump's second term increased uncertainty and the cost of global trade. Finally, US/Israel-Iran war in 2026 further exacerbated uncertainties, leading to higher global energy prices and supply restrictions, becoming one of the most significant obstacles to global economic and trade growth.

All these developments have also negatively impacted our country's economy. However, when evaluating our country's economy, we must also consider the high financing costs and access-to-financing problems implemented since June 2023 as part of the fight against inflation program. In short, both domestic developments and the high energy prices brought about by increasing geopolitical risks from abroad, the trade wars resulting from increased protectionist measures, and the increased customs duties have negatively affected Türkiye's growth, inflation, and foreign trade balance. Although our export revenue has increased, when we look at the quantity and price movements, it is seen that our exports are driven by the increase in the export price index, while the annual increases in the quantity index have been continuously decreasing since the beginning of 2024 and have turned negative in recent years, while the price index, which was 100 in 2021, has increased by 35 percent to 135 at the beginning of 2026. 

Another impact of global developments on the Turkish economy is that they occasionally disrupt the ongoing disinflation program, negatively affecting inflation expectations and causing the process to proceed slowly. The worsening of inflation expectations, coupled with inflation failing to fall at the expected pace, has negatively impacted the Central Bank of Türkiye's (TCMB) interest rate reduction process. After closing 2024 with a policy interest rate of 50%, the TCMB entered a gradual reduction phase. However, since the decrease in inflation has not been at the expected pace, the TCMB's policy interest rate reductions and consequently high financing costs remain, negatively affecting the competitiveness of the industrial sector in particular.

As a result, the business world, operating in an environment of increased geopolitical risks, is under significant competitive pressure due to rising energy costs from abroad, increasing uncertainty, global protectionist trends, and high inflation and financing costs domestically. These problems lead to decreased exports and growth, a worsening of the foreign trade balance, and hinder the fight against inflation. In this process, it is crucial to mitigate the impact of rising costs on the competitiveness of the manufacturing industry, the most affected sector, increase access to financing, and open new avenues for our firms through diplomatic activities in an environment of increased protectionism.